The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Dominique de Villepin 60% +2
- François Hollande 53% −6.5
- Bernard Cazeneuve 33% −6.5
- Yaël Braun-Pivet 9.7% —
- Manuel Bompard 8.5% +0.5
- François Bayrou 6.9% +1
- Michel Barnier 6.5% −2
- Élisabeth Borne 5.9% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$108K
Favourite, 7 days−1.5 pts
Dominique de Villepin, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 1: 60% · Oct 2: 59% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 31% · Oct 6: 56% · Oct 7: 61% · Oct 8: 61%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗