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PolymarketCloses December 17, 2026

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase leads at 84% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 16, 22:22 UTC. It's up 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.

25 bps increase 84% ▲ 3.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 16, 22:22 UTC
  • 25 bps increase 84% +3.5
  • No change 14% −1.5
  • 50+ bps increase 1.6% −0.5
  • 25 bps decrease 1.5% —
  • 50+ bps decrease 1.3% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+8.5 pts

25 bps increase, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 8Oct 1684%

Oct 9: 75% · Oct 10: 76% · Oct 11: 75% · Oct 12: 76% · Oct 13: 75% · Oct 14: 76% · Oct 15: 80% · Oct 16: 84%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
See it on Polymarket ↗

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