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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

The market puts it at 24% — about 2 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 19:22 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 19:22 UTC
  • Chance of yes 24% −1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$505K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 624%

Sep 29: 27% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 27% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 27% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 25% · Oct 6: 24%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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