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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

The market puts it at 76% — about 8 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 12, 08:47 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 76% ▼ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 12, 08:47 UTC
  • Chance of yes 76% −1
Traded today$771
Traded in all$27K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 4Oct 1276%

Oct 5: 77% · Oct 6: 77% · Oct 7: 76% · Oct 8: 77% · Oct 9: 77% · Oct 10: 77% · Oct 11: 77% · Oct 12: 76%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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