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Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Jacob Bridgeman 95% ▲+44Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Set 1 Winner Pablo Carreno Busta 89% ▲+42NLCS MVP Winner William Contreras 43% ▲+40Critics Choice Awards: Best Foreign Language Film La Bola Negra 12% ▼−40ALCS MVP Winner Miguel Vargas 45% ▲+40Steam: Weekly Top Seller STAR WARS: Galactic Racer™ 35% ▼−38Charlton vs Ryan Ziegann Sam Ryan Ziegann 71% ▲+38Hoole vs Sach Casey Hoole 92% ▲+35RED Canids vs. FlyQuest FlyQuest 84% ▲+34Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI… October 31 62% ▲+28Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? Elon Musk 93% ▲+28OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 166 T tokens 42% ▲+27Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026 Can Xue 16% ▼−23Meta's Watermelon released on...? No release by October 31 46% ▲+23
PolymarketCloses December 1, 2026

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

Anthropic leads at 49% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC. It's up 11 points in the last 24 hours.

Anthropic 49% ▲ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC
  • Anthropic 49% +11
  • Google 30% —
  • Meta 14% −3.5
  • OpenAI 4.7% —
  • SpaceXAI 4% —
  • Z.ai 3.8% —
  • Moonshot 3.5% —
  • Tencent 3.1% −1
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts

Anthropic, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 849%

Oct 1: 43% · Oct 2: 43% · Oct 3: 44% · Oct 4: 39% · Oct 5: 39% · Oct 6: 38% · Oct 7: 18% · Oct 8: 49%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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