The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Tom Cotton 93% —
- Hallie Shoffner 6.9% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$186K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Tom Cotton, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 93% · Sep 29: 94% · Sep 30: 94% · Oct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 94% · Oct 3: 93% · Oct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 94%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Tom Cotton; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗