The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- Before 2030 42% —
- Before 2029 26% —
- Before 2028 3.3% +1.7
- Before 2027 <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$557
Traded in all$552K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Before 2030, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 46% · Sep 29: 39% · Sep 30: 42% · Oct 1: 42% · Oct 4: 42%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2030; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: NASA
See it on Kalshi ↗