The odds
as of Oct 17, 22:19 UTC- 2.5% or above 84% −6
- 3.25% or above 78% −15
- 3.5% or above 84% −10
- 3.75% or above 87% −7
- 4% or above 87% −5
- 4.75% or above 89% −1
- 5% or above 89% −1
- 5.25% or above 86% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$55K
Favourite, 7 days+42 pts
4.75% or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 14: 48% · Oct 15: 68% · Oct 16: 51% · Oct 17: 89%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4.75% or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury
See it on Kalshi ↗