The odds
as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC- Above 4.5% 25% +2
- Above 4.8% 14% −6
- Above 5% 3.2% −1
- Above 5.5% 3% —
- Above 6% 3% —
- Above 6.5% 2.5% —
- Above 7% 2.4% —
- Above 8% 2.4% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$666
Traded in all$805K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
Above 4.5%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 18% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 18% · Oct 1: 20% · Oct 2: 20% · Oct 3: 21% · Oct 4: 21% · Oct 5: 25%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 4.5%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗