The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Talarico defeats Paxton 65% +1
- Paxton defeats Talarico 37% −1
Traded today$817
Traded in all$317K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Talarico defeats Paxton, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 60% · Sep 29: 59% · Sep 30: 61% · Oct 1: 61% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 62% · Oct 4: 64% · Oct 5: 65%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Talarico defeats Paxton; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: GOP Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.
Settlement sources: Texas Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗