The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Before Apr 1, 2027 40% −1.5
- Before Jan 1, 2027 33% −3
- Before Dec 1, 2026 22% −4
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−14 pts
Before Apr 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 53% · Oct 31: 53% · Nov 2: 54% · Nov 3: 53% · Nov 4: 53% · Nov 5: 53% · Nov 6: 64% · Nov 7: 53%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any federal or state court issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by any federal or state court in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls
Settlement sources: Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; PACER; CBS; Axios; CNN; Reuters; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Politico; The New York Times; Westlaw; LexisNexis; Justia; CourtListener; Court News Service; Law360; Bloomberg News; NBC; Bloomberg Law
See it on Kalshi ↗