Moving
Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 5% ▼−85Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Nottingham Forest 94% ▲+73Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC Nottingham Forest FC 93% ▲+72Leganes vs Albacete Albacete 96% ▲+69Kansas City vs Angel City FC Tie 90% ▲+69CD Leganés vs. Albacete Balompié Albacete Balompié 95% ▲+69Morehead St. vs Marist Morehead St. 76% ▲+61University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Novemb… 49.0 to 51.9 75% ▲+52CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independie… CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 81% ▲+52Mendoza vs Rivadavia Mendoza 80% ▲+51Robert Morris vs Duquesne Duquesne 30% ▼−50Riga FC vs. FC RFS Draw (Riga FC vs. FC RFS) 96% ▲+48Artnak vs Bigun Bor Artnak 96% ▲+46Osasuna vs Bilbao Tie 70% ▲+43
KalshiCloses December 1, 2026

Will a court block paid early access to Trump's Truth Social posts?

Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 40% (about 4 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC. It's down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Before Apr 1, 2027 40% ▼ 1.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC
  • Before Apr 1, 2027 40% −1.5
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 33% −3
  • Before Dec 1, 2026 22% −4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−14 pts

Before Apr 1, 2027, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 30Nov 753%

Oct 30: 53% · Oct 31: 53% · Nov 2: 54% · Nov 3: 53% · Nov 4: 53% · Nov 5: 53% · Nov 6: 64% · Nov 7: 53%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any federal or state court issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by any federal or state court in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls

Settlement sources: Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; PACER; CBS; Axios; CNN; Reuters; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Politico; The New York Times; Westlaw; LexisNexis; Justia; CourtListener; Court News Service; Law360; Bloomberg News; NBC; Bloomberg Law

See it on Kalshi ↗

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