The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Donald Trump Jr. 78% +17
- Jared Kushner 60% +5
- Eric Trump 54% −1
- Pete Hegseth 54% −1
- Barron Trump 50% −5
- Donald Trump 46% +3
- Scott Bessent 45% —
- Todd Blanche 43% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$429K
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts
Donald Trump Jr., the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 71% · Sep 29: 71% · Sep 30: 76% · Oct 1: 69% · Oct 2: 69% · Oct 3: 77% · Oct 4: 75% · Oct 5: 70%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Donald Trump Jr.; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump Jr. has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.
Settlement sources: White House; New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗