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KalshiCloses December 31, 2027

2026: Trump's dream year?

The market puts it at 3.2% — a long shot, about one in 31 — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC. It's up 2.6 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.2% +2.6
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$601K
Yes, 7 days+1 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 53%

Sep 28: 2.1% · Sep 29: 2.1% · Sep 30: 2.4% · Oct 1: 2.4% · Oct 2: 2.2% · Oct 3: 2.3% · Oct 4: 4.2% · Oct 5: 3.2%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: - "Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?" uses CONTROL - "Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?" uses LGDP - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, quarter-over-quarter percent change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)

Settlement sources: VoteHub; U.S. House of Representatives; U.S. Senate; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Labor Statistics

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

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