The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Before 2028 56% +2
- Before 2027 3.1% −3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$650
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
Before 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 53% · Nov 1: 53% · Nov 2: 53% · Nov 3: 54% · Nov 4: 54% · Nov 5: 54% · Nov 6: 54% · Nov 7: 51%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States announces the opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Syria after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The embassy or consulate must either be opened or have a confirmed opening date. Re-opening an embassy after suspended operations also qualifies.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗