The odds
as of Oct 25, 04:26 UTC- Above 260 93% −2
- Above 270 87% +1
- Above 280 78% —
- Above 290 56% —
- Above 300 38% +4
- Above 310 23% —
- Above 320 9.5% —
- Above 330 6.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
Above 260, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 92% · Oct 24: 95% · Oct 25: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 260; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗