Moving
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? <$65B 77% ▲+73Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset? Matan Kahana 94% ▲+66Ponce de leon gomila vs Radulov Matias Ponce de leon gomila 90% ▲+60When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO? Before Jan 1, 2033 69% ▲+53Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-W… November 30 81% ▲+50Santos vs Rodrigues Kauany Rodrigues 97% ▲+47PlayTime vs. Xipto Esports: Map 1 Winner Xipto Esports 93% ▲+46Will Iran target Oman by...? December 31 54% ▲+45Crosio vs Centurion Delvalle Francisco Crosio 95% ▲+45Branchetti vs Fernandez Badia Giovanni Branchetti 93% ▲+42Mouilleron Salvo vs Giangrasso Manuel Mouilleron Salvo 92% ▲+42Gemini Carbon released on...? November 10 97% ▲+41Tsitsipas vs Cretu Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) 51% ▼−39Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? 65%+ 65% ▲+38
KalshiCloses December 8, 2026

Streaming app downloads array index in November 2026

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is Above 65 at 88% on Kalshi, as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC. It's up 26 points in the last 24 hours.

Above 65 88% ▲ 26 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC
  • Above 65 88% +26
  • Above 70 77% —
  • Above 75 56% —
  • Above 80 30% —
  • Above 85 8.5% —
  • Above 90 6% —
  • Above 95 3.5% −6
  • Above 100 2.5% +1

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$23K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts

Above 65, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Nov 2Nov 1088%

Nov 3: 92% · Nov 4: 90% · Nov 5: 89% · Nov 6: 94% · Nov 7: 94% · Nov 8: 65% · Nov 9: 63% · Nov 10: 88%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 65; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Streaming app downloads array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 65, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Streaming Apps Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value. The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Streaming Apps Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=4a5e14d8-0a48-449b-9733-5fadf6a45851&entity=Streaming+Apps. The underlying metric is app downloads. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Netflix, Hulu: Stream shows & movies, Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies, Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies, ESPN: Live Sports & Scores, each weighted 1/7. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured app downloads equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources: Carbon Arc

See it on Kalshi ↗

Economy

More markets like this

All →