The odds
as of Oct 8, 01:44 UTC- 5 49% −3.5
- 4 38% +1
- 6 6% —
- 3 4.5% −1
- 7 2.5% —
- 8 2% —
- 9 1.5% —
- 1 or below 1% —
Traded today$857
Traded in all$61K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
5, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 49% · Oct 1: 49% · Oct 2: 49% · Oct 3: 49% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 5: 55% · Oct 6: 53% · Oct 7: 52%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 5; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If exactly 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
Settlement sources: SpaceX
See it on Kalshi ↗