The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Before 2027 36% −4
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$500
Traded in all$87K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
Before 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 22% · Oct 2: 34% · Oct 3: 41% · Oct 4: 44% · Oct 5: 37% · Oct 6: 40% · Oct 7: 40% · Oct 8: 36%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the SpaceX Starship has launched from Florida before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: ABC; Fox News; MSNBC; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; The Information; CBS; The New York Times; Axios; CNN; Reuters; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗