The odds
as of Oct 11, 03:34 UTC- Above 89 96% +11
- Above 91 72% +1
- Above 92 58% −3
- Above 93 53% −18
- Above 94 40% −12
- Above 95 18% −13
- Above 97 7.5% −4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Above 89, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 80% · Oct 6: 75% · Oct 7: 78% · Oct 8: 78% · Oct 9: 83% · Oct 10: 90% · Oct 11: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 89; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Sprite Point of Sale Growth (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 89 , then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 2nd. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Sprite Point of Sale Growth was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel using in-store and online purchases captured via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗