The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Above 87.5 TWh 97% —
- Above 90.0 TWh 96% —
- Above 92.5 TWh 95% —
- Above 95.0 TWh 88% +4
- Above 97.5 TWh 55% —
- Above 100.0 TWh 6% −6
- Above 102.5 TWh 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$176K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 87.5 TWh, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 97% · Sep 29: 97% · Sep 30: 97% · Oct 1: 97% · Oct 2: 97% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 87.5 TWh; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If EIA reports that Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for calendar year 2026 is above 87.5 TWh, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Illinois’s calendar-year total nuclear electricity net generation, expressed in terawatt-hours (TWh). EIA reports the underlying generation data in megawatthours (MWh); 1 TWh = 1,000,000 MWh. Generation from nuclear facilities located in Illinois is included. Resolution is based on the first EIA publication containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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