The odds
as of Oct 14, 14:25 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 76% +6
- Before Mar 1, 2027 74% —
- Before Feb 1, 2027 72% —
- Before Dec 1, 2026 46% −14
- Before Nov 1, 2026 23% −19
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 69% · Oct 8: 68% · Oct 9: 68% · Oct 10: 73% · Oct 11: 77% · Oct 12: 81% · Oct 13: 75% · Oct 14: 76%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: For example, Google Finance
See it on Kalshi ↗