The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Alaska 8% −1
- Iowa 3% —
- Ohio (special) 3% −7
- Nebraska 2% —
- Maine 1.5% —
- Kansas 1.5% —
- Michigan 1.5% —
- Texas 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$762
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−6.5 pts
Alaska, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 14% · Nov 1: 14% · Nov 2: 12% · Nov 3: 10% · Nov 4: 9% · Nov 5: 86% · Nov 6: 2% · Nov 7: 8%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Alaska; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.
Settlement sources: Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division; Alaska Division of Elections; Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections; Iowa Secretary of State, Elections Division; South Carolina Election Commission; Kansas Secretary of State, Elections Division; Nebraska Secretary of State; Michigan Department of State; Ohio Secretary of State; Florida Department of State; New Hampshire Secretary of State; North Carolina State Board of Elections
See it on Kalshi ↗