The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Matthew McConaughey 4.7% −0.6
- Jake Paul 4.2% —
- Nicki Minaj 3.8% —
- Joe Kent 3.8% —
- Danica Patrick 3.2% —
- Matt Gaetz 3.2% —
- Glenn Youngkin 3% −3
- Mark Cuban 2.5% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$124K
Favourite, 7 days+2.4 pts
Matthew McConaughey, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 2.3% · Sep 29: 2.3% · Sep 30: 2.3% · Oct 1: 4.6% · Oct 2: 4.4% · Oct 3: 4.5% · Oct 4: 4% · Oct 5: 4.7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Matthew McConaughey; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Matthew McConaughey has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; person
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