The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Chance of yes 2.2% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$3.8M
Yes, 7 days−1.4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 3.5% · Sep 29: 3.1% · Sep 30: 3% · Oct 1: 2.8% · Oct 2: 2.7% · Oct 3: 2% · Oct 4: 2.1% · Oct 5: 2.2%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Mitch McConnell has resigned, retired, or otherwise voluntarily stepped down from their Congressional office, or announced their intent to resign, retire, or otherwise voluntarily step down from their office prematurely, after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗