The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Chance of yes 20% +3
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$599K
Yes, 7 days−3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 24% · Sep 29: 24% · Sep 30: 20% · Oct 1: 21% · Oct 2: 21% · Oct 3: 19% · Oct 4: 21% · Oct 5: 20%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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