The odds
as of Oct 12, 19:22 UTC- Above $31,000 97% —
- Above $31,500 94% +1
- Above $32,000 90% —
- Above $32,500 38% —
- Above $33,000 13% —
- Above $33,500 4.5% —
- Above $34,000 2.5% —
- Above $34,500 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$56K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Above $31,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 99% · Oct 9: 97% · Oct 10: 97% · Oct 11: 97% · Oct 12: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $31,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the first official, non-preliminary U.S. starting MSRP of the 2027 Toyota RAV4, published by Toyota after Issuance and before January 1, 2027 under the specified textual price label Starting MSRP, is above $31,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Starting MSRP means the manufacturer-published price for the model’s lowest-priced U.S. retail configuration, explicitly identified as “Starting MSRP” or “Base MSRP” on its official U.S. model page, pricing announcement, or price sheet. Pricing for higher trims alone does not qualify. Prices are in USD, excluding destination/delivery charges, duties, taxes, registration, dealer fees, and optional equipment, and without applying rebates, incentives, tax credits, or discounts. The event will close and resolve upon qualifying publication, without waiting until the announcement cutoff. Later price changes, corrections, and revisions are ignored. Estimates, third-party prices, and prices for other model years do not qualify. If no qualifying price is published within the specified window, all markets resolve No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Toyota. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Toyota
See it on Kalshi ↗