The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Exactly 2 62% +4
- Exactly 1 28% —
- Exactly 3 7% −1
- At least 4 4% —
- Exactly 0 1% —
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$163K
Favourite, 7 days+8 pts
Exactly 2, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 54% · Sep 29: 51% · Sep 30: 60% · Oct 1: 62% · Oct 2: 61% · Oct 3: 66% · Oct 4: 64% · Oct 5: 62%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Exactly 2; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗