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Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 5% ▼−85Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Nottingham Forest 94% ▲+73Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC Nottingham Forest FC 93% ▲+72Leganes vs Albacete Albacete 96% ▲+69Kansas City vs Angel City FC Tie 90% ▲+69CD Leganés vs. Albacete Balompié Albacete Balompié 95% ▲+69Morehead St. vs Marist Morehead St. 76% ▲+61University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Novemb… 49.0 to 51.9 75% ▲+52CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independie… CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 81% ▲+52Mendoza vs Rivadavia Mendoza 80% ▲+51Robert Morris vs Duquesne Duquesne 30% ▼−50Riga FC vs. FC RFS Draw (Riga FC vs. FC RFS) 96% ▲+48Artnak vs Bigun Bor Artnak 96% ▲+46Osasuna vs Bilbao Tie 70% ▲+43
KalshiCloses November 7, 2027

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Christopher Luxon leads at 89% (about 9 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC. It's up 26 points in the last 24 hours.

Christopher Luxon 89% ▲ 26 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC
  • Christopher Luxon 89% +26
  • Chris Hipkins 14% −26
  • Chlöe Swarbrick 3% —
  • Marama Davidson 3% —
  • Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 3% —
  • Rawiri Waititi 3% —
  • Qiulae Wong 3% —
  • Simeon Brown 3% —
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+33 pts

Christopher Luxon, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 30Nov 787%

Oct 31: 56% · Nov 1: 56% · Nov 2: 56% · Nov 3: 54% · Nov 4: 44% · Nov 5: 54% · Nov 6: 60% · Nov 7: 87%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Christopher Luxon; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Nov 7, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources: Governor-General of New Zealand; Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

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