The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- 2 66% +6
- 3 27% +5
- 4 7% —
- 5 2.5% —
Traded today$512
Traded in all$61K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
2, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 62% · Nov 1: 62% · Nov 2: 62% · Nov 3: 62% · Nov 4: 65% · Nov 5: 65% · Nov 6: 59% · Nov 7: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 2 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Link to associated contract: GOVTSHUTLENGTH.
Settlement sources: Office of Management and Budget; United States Office of Personnel Management
See it on Kalshi ↗