The odds
as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC- 4.75% or above 93% +1.5
- 5% or above 87% +17
- 5.1% or above 64% —
- 5.15% or above 67% —
- 5.25% or above 54% −6
- 5.5% or above 70% —
- 5.75% or above 25% —
- 6% or above 16% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$762
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
4.75% or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 81% · Sep 29: 83% · Sep 30: 83% · Oct 1: 80% · Oct 2: 85% · Oct 3: 90% · Oct 4: 91% · Oct 5: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4.75% or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury
See it on Kalshi ↗