The odds
as of Oct 14, 17:21 UTC- Chance of yes 36% +0.5
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$26K
Yes, 7 days−21 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 57% · Oct 8: 40% · Oct 9: 42% · Oct 10: 36% · Oct 11: 36% · Oct 12: 36% · Oct 13: 36% · Oct 14: 36%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf EIA reports that North Dakota’s field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 421.101 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s North Dakota Field Production of Crude Oil annual total for 2026. EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels, so the fixed threshold is 421,101 thousand barrels. The threshold will not change if EIA subsequently revises its 2025 value.
Settlement sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
See it on Kalshi ↗