The odds
as of Oct 9, 19:22 UTC- Above 600,000 bales 93% —
- Above 700,000 bales 85% +3
- Above 800,000 bales 62% +8
- Above 900,000 bales 44% +4
- Above 1,000,000 bales 20% −5
- Above 1,100,000 bales 11% −10
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$37K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 600,000 bales, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 93% · Oct 3: 93% · Oct 4: 93% · Oct 5: 93% · Oct 6: 93% · Oct 7: 93% · Oct 8: 93% · Oct 9: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 600,000 bales; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 600,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales.
Settlement sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
See it on Kalshi ↗