The odds
as of Nov 2, 19:13 UTC- Above 3.80M 97% −0.5
- Above 4.10M 97% —
- Above 4.40M 92% —
- Above 4.70M 78% +12
- Above 5.00M 61% −6
- Above 5.30M 44% −3
- Above 5.60M 14% +3
- Above 5.90M 12% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$32K
Favourite, 7 days+1.5 pts
Above 3.80M, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 26: 95% · Oct 27: 96% · Oct 28: 96% · Oct 29: 96% · Oct 30: 97% · Nov 1: 97% · Nov 2: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3.80M; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election is above 3800000, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Michigan Department of State
See it on Kalshi ↗