Moving
Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 90% ▲+91Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club Draw (Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club) 93% ▲+84Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club Draw (Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club) 94% ▲+83Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club Draw (Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club) 94% ▲+73Texas State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+72Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC Draw (Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC) 94% ▲+69CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC Draw (CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC) 95% ▲+68Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club Draw (Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club) 95% ▲+68TX-23 House election: Brandon Herrera vote percent At least 48% 7% ▼−68Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club Draw (Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club) 91% ▲+66Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 96% ▲+652028 presidential odds leader on November 30? JD Vance 20% ▼−64Amazon Credit Card Spend in October Above 106 5% ▼−63Kansas Governor-Senate combo Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win 90% ▲+60
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Ohio's 7th District margin of victory

Miller, 1+ pts leads at <1% (a very long shot) on Kalshi, as of Nov 4, 07:18 UTC. It's down 14 points in the last 24 hours.

Miller, 1+ pts <1% ▼ 14 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 07:18 UTC
  • Miller, 1+ pts <1% −14
  • Miller, 4+ pts <1% −4
  • Miller, 7+ pts <1% −3
  • Miller, 10+ pts <1% −4.3
  • Miller, 13+ pts <1% −1.7
  • Miller, 16+ pts <1% −4
  • Miller, 19+ pts <1% −3
  • Miller, 22+ pts <1% −4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$13K
Traded in all$56K
Favourite, 7 days−10 pts

Miller, 1+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 27Nov 41%

Oct 28: 11% · Oct 29: 11% · Oct 30: 11% · Oct 31: 14% · Nov 1: 14% · Nov 2: 14% · Nov 3: 14% · Nov 4: <1%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Miller, 1+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Ohio's 7th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Ohio Secretary of State

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →