The odds
as of Oct 13, 12:40 UTC- Above 94 78% −1
- Above 103 83% +2
- Above 106 60% −22
- Above 109 71% —
- Above 112 63% −2
- Above 115 39% −11
- Above 118 36% −8
- Above 121 22% −12
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days−6.5 pts
Above 103, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 6: 90% · Oct 7: 89% · Oct 8: 83% · Oct 9: 87% · Oct 10: 88% · Oct 11: 86% · Oct 12: 85% · Oct 13: 79%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 103; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 103, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4th. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Amazon Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗