The odds
as of Oct 12, 05:32 UTC- Above 3 billion 96% −3
- Above 3.05 billion 94% −1
- Above 3.1 billion 95% −1
- Above 3.15 billion 95% −1
- Above 3.2 billion 93% —
- Above 3.25 billion 89% —
- Above 3.3 billion 88% —
- Above 3.35 billion 80% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$938
Traded in all$78K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
Above 3 billion, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 99% · Oct 6: 99% · Oct 7: 99% · Oct 8: 99% · Oct 9: 99% · Oct 10: 99% · Oct 11: 99% · Oct 12: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3 billion; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3000000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Fiscal.ai
See it on Kalshi ↗