The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- At least 4.5% 27% +0.7
- At least 5.0% 15% —
- At least 5.5% 6.9% —
- At least 6.0% 5.9% −2
- At least 6.5% 5% —
- At least 7.0% 3% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$679
Traded in all$559K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
At least 4.5%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 28% · Sep 29: 27% · Sep 30: 29% · Oct 1: 23% · Oct 2: 28% · Oct 3: 27% · Oct 4: 26% · Oct 5: 27%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 4.5%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗