The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- 5,900 or below 7.3% —
- 6,000 or below 9.9% +3.7
- 6,100 or below 10% −2
- 6,200 or below 12% —
- 6,300 or below 13% −0.6
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$896K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
6,300 or below, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 14% · Sep 30: 12% · Oct 1: 16% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 13% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 13%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 6,300 or below; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6300.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: For example, Google Finance
See it on Kalshi ↗