The odds
as of Nov 4, 07:18 UTC- Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) 94% +26
- Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) 39% +31
- Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06) 1.5% −5
- 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) 1% −11
- M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) 1% −7
- Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) 1% −1
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+21 pts
Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40), the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 76% · Oct 29: 72% · Oct 30: 73% · Oct 31: 71% · Nov 1: 65% · Nov 2: 64% · Nov 3: 89% · Nov 4: 81%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40); the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Idaho Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗