The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 10 97% +1
- Above 15 93% —
- Above 20 76% −2
- Above 25 45% −2
- Above 30 12% −7
- Above 35 7.5% —
- Above 40 4.5% —
- Above 45 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+39 pts
Above 10, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 10; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗