The odds
as of Nov 2, 19:13 UTC- Above 15 95% +1
- Above 20 83% −4
- Above 23 56% −1
- Above 25 41% +1
- Above 27 43% —
- Above 30 28% —
- Above 35 8.5% −3
- Above 40 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$32K
Favourite, 7 days−4.5 pts
Above 15, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 75% · Oct 31: 94% · Nov 1: 94% · Nov 2: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 15; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗