Moving
KalshiCloses October 13, 2026

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

October 6 leads at 15% (about 2 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC. It's down 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC
  • October 6 15% −2.5
  • October 5 14% —
  • October 7 14% —
  • October 8 14% —
  • October 9 14% —
  • October 10 14% —
  • October 11 14% −1
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$37K
Favourite, 7 days−38 pts

October 6, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 2Oct 518%

Oct 2: 18% · Oct 3: 18% · Oct 4: 18% · Oct 5: 18%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, October 6; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Oct 6, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.

Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →