The odds
as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC- 2.1% to 2.5% 39% —
- 1.6% to 2.0% 30% —
- 2.6% to 3.0% 16% —
- 1.1% to 1.5% 7% —
- 3.1% to 3.5% 3% +4
- 0.1% to 0.5% 1.4% —
- 4.1% to 4.5% 1% —
- 0.6% to 1.0% <1% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$403K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts
2.1% to 2.5%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 42% · Sep 29: 40% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 44% · Oct 2: 39% · Oct 3: 41% · Oct 4: 42% · Oct 5: 39%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2.1% to 2.5%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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