The odds
as of Oct 13, 19:21 UTC- Exactly 2 64% +6.4
- Exactly 1 22% —
- Exactly 3 12% —
- Exactly 4 1% —
- Exactly 6 <1% —
- Exactly 7 <1% —
- Exactly 8 <1% —
- Exactly 9 <1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$158K
Favourite, 7 days+4.3 pts
Exactly 2, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 6: 60% · Oct 7: 60% · Oct 8: 63% · Oct 9: 62% · Oct 10: 61% · Oct 11: 61% · Oct 12: 62% · Oct 13: 64%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Exactly 2; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗