The odds
as of Oct 6, 21:23 UTC- 0 cuts 96% —
- 1 cuts 2.4% −3
- 2 cuts 1.5% −2.4
- 3 cuts <1% −0.7
- 4 cuts <1% —
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$498K
Favourite, 7 days−2.4 pts
0 cuts, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 99% · Sep 30: 99% · Oct 1: 99% · Oct 2: 99% · Oct 3: 99% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98% · Oct 6: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 0 cuts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗