The odds
as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC- Overheating 66% −5
- Soft landing 32% —
- Stagflation 3.1% —
- Slack / disinflation 1.3% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$114K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Overheating, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 69% · Sep 29: 68% · Sep 30: 67% · Oct 1: 69% · Oct 2: 69% · Oct 3: 69% · Oct 4: 68% · Oct 5: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Overheating; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Settlement sources: FRED CPIAUCSL; FRED UNRATE
See it on Kalshi ↗