The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- 230-233 18% +6
- Above 249 14% —
- 234-237 14% +1
- 238-241 12% —
- 226-229 9.8% —
- 242-245 9.8% —
- 246-249 7.6% —
- 222-225 6.7% —
Traded today$62K
Traded in all$2.4M
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
230-233, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 14% · Sep 29: 14% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 13% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 18%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 230-233; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic party has between 230-233 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗