The odds
as of Oct 8, 11:25 UTC- Above 3.0% 94% −1
- Above 3.1% 94% —
- Above 3.2% 90% —
- Above 3.3% 90% —
- Above 3.4% 89% —
- Above 3.5% 82% −2
- Above 3.6% 56% —
- Above 3.7% 55% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$210K
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts
Above 3.0%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 98% · Oct 2: 98% · Oct 3: 98% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98% · Oct 6: 95% · Oct 7: 94% · Oct 8: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3.0%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗