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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will Elon purchase Ryanair?

The market puts it at 3.5% — a long shot, about one in 29 — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC. It's up 3 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.5% +3
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$124K
Yes, 7 days+0.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 54%

Sep 28: 3% · Sep 29: 3% · Sep 30: 3% · Oct 1: 3% · Oct 2: 3% · Oct 3: 3% · Oct 4: 3% · Oct 5: 3.5%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX has taken a stake of above 0% in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

Settlement sources: Ryanair

See it on Kalshi ↗

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