The odds
as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC- Chance of yes 3.5% +3
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$124K
Yes, 7 days+0.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 3% · Sep 29: 3% · Sep 30: 3% · Oct 1: 3% · Oct 2: 3% · Oct 3: 3% · Oct 4: 3% · Oct 5: 3.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX has taken a stake of above 0% in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.
Settlement sources: Ryanair
See it on Kalshi ↗