The odds
as of Oct 12, 03:40 UTC- Above 79 91% −1.5
- Above 83 81% +7
- Above 85 63% —
- Above 87 34% +2
- Above 89 14% −1
- Above 91 7% —
- Above 95 5.5% —
- Above 99 4% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts
Above 79, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 96% · Oct 6: 96% · Oct 7: 91% · Oct 8: 96% · Oct 9: 87% · Oct 10: 93% · Oct 11: 90% · Oct 12: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 79; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Celsius Point of Sale Growth (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 79 , then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 2nd. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Celsius Point of Sale Growth was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel using in-store and online purchases captured via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗